{"id":284991,"date":"2022-03-21T12:38:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T09:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/?p=284991"},"modified":"2022-03-21T14:42:37","modified_gmt":"2022-03-21T11:42:37","slug":"iklim-degisikliginin-kahve-kaju-ve-avokado-uretimine-etkisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/iklim-degisikliginin-kahve-kaju-ve-avokado-uretimine-etkisi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin kahve, kaju ve avokado \u00fcretimine etkisi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0261976\"><strong>Plos One<\/strong><\/a><strong> dergisinde yay\u0131nlanan yeni bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kahve, kaju f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve avokado i\u00e7in yeti\u015ftirme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi modellendi. S\u0131cak iklimlerde kahve yeti\u015ftirmenin zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin de kaju ve avokado yeti\u015ftirme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 saptand\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2050 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tar\u0131msal peyzaj\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10 milyar insan\u0131n g\u0131daya eri\u015fmesi gerekecek ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle g\u0131dalar\u0131n \u00fcretildi\u011fi yerler de\u011fi\u015fecek. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131yla beraber tropik yiyeceklerden baz\u0131lar\u0131 kuzey b\u00f6lgelerde yeti\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. \u00d6rne\u011fin, turun\u00e7giller G\u00fcrcistan&#8217;da, avokado ise \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n Sicilya adas\u0131nda yeti\u015ftiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kahve yeti\u015ftirmeye en elveri\u015fli alanlar\u0131n tropik b\u00f6lgelerden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en iyi be\u015f kahve \u00fcreticisinden d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcn (Brezilya, Vietnam, Kolombiya ve Endonezya) kahve yeti\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n\u0131n boyutunun ve verimlili\u011finin <strong>azalmas\u0131<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kahvenin do\u011fdu\u011fu yer olan Etiyopya, \u00fcretimde be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor ve kahve yeti\u015ftirme verimlili\u011finin <strong>ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131<\/strong> bekleniyor. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri, Arjantin, Uruguay ve \u00c7in gibi baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin kahve yeti\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 da muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle tropik b\u00f6lgelerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler elveri\u015fli arazileriyle kahveden k\u00e2r etmek i\u00e7in yeni f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rma iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin kahve \u00e7ekirdekleri \u00fczerindeki zararl\u0131 etkisini belgeleyen \u00f6nceki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da geni\u015fletiyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, topra\u011f\u0131n pH ve dokusunun fazla ya\u011f\u0131\u015fla nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi gibi geni\u015f bir yelpazede de\u011ferlendirme yaparak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe dair daha fazla kan\u0131t sunuyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ayn\u0131 zamanda iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin kaju ve avokado yeti\u015ftirilen b\u00f6lgeleri nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine dair ilk k\u00fcresel bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130svi\u00e7re&#8217;deki Z\u00fcrih Uygulamal\u0131 Bilimler \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;nden \u00e7evre bilimcisi ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yazar\u0131 Roman Gr\u00fcter, de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullar\u0131 telafi etmek i\u00e7in &#8220;Bir\u00e7ok yere adaptasyon sa\u011flamak elbette m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.&#8221; diyor. Bilim insanlar\u0131 ve \u00e7ift\u00e7iler, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden az etkilenmesi ad\u0131na baz\u0131 mahsulleri melezlemeyi deniyorlar. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/environment\/article\/can-the-iconic-georgia-peach-keep-growing-in-a-warming-south\">G\u00fcrcistan<\/a> ve Sicilya gibi b\u00f6lgelerde uyum i\u00e7in tamamen yeni mahsul t\u00fcrleri ekiliyor. Ancak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bunlar\u0131n yeterli olmayabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gr\u00fcter,\u201d Bir noktadan sonra bir mahsul\u00fcn geleneksel b\u00f6lgesinde yeti\u015fmesi art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir\u201d diyor..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gelece\u011fi modellemek&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin tar\u0131m \u00fczerindeki etkisini modelleyen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar genellikle soya, m\u0131s\u0131r ve bu\u011fday gibi kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan \u00fcr\u00fcnleri temel al\u0131yor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u00e7iftliklerde yeti\u015ftirilen g\u0131da t\u00fcrleri \u00fczerinde az \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Oysa bu t\u00fcrler, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel g\u0131da arz\u0131n\u0131 planlarken yapbozun \u00f6nemli par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturacak. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/news\/story\/en\/item\/1395127\/icode\/\">G\u0131da ve Tar\u0131m \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc&#8217;ne g\u00f6re<\/a> k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7iftlikler d\u00fcnyadaki g\u0131dalar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birini \u00fcretiyor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7 mahsul\u00fcn \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada neden analiz edildi\u011fini anlamak da \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu mahs\u00fcller m\u0131s\u0131r veya bu\u011fday gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin aksine hasattan y\u0131llar \u00f6nce ekilir. Bu da ne t\u00fcr mahsullerin yeti\u015ftirilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131n gelecekteki s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeni gibi ko\u015fullarla ilgili varsay\u0131mlara dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcnya \u015fimdiden 1,1 santigrat derece \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131. Bu da bitkilerde \u0131s\u0131 stresinin ve do\u011fal afetlerin \u015fiddetinin artmas\u0131na neden oluyor. 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/environment\/article\/5-possible-climate-futures-from-the-optimistic-to-the-strange\">d\u00fcnya 3 \u00b0 C \u0131s\u0131nabilir<\/a>. 14 farkl\u0131 modeli inceleyen ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/research\/ukcp\/ukcp18-guidance---representative-concentration-pathways.pdf\">\u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 iklim senaryosu <\/a>alt\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ettiler: Sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131nda ciddi bir azalmayla beraber ve \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n 1,6\u00b0C ile s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 2,4\u00b0C ile s\u0131n\u0131rlayan orta d\u00fczeyde bir de\u011fi\u015fim ve \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n 4\u00b0C&#8217;yi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc durum senaryosu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7e\u015fit &#8220;uygunluk&#8221; kriteriyle karakterize edildi. Y\u00fcksek uygunluk, belirli bir mahsul\u00fcn, sulama ve g\u00fcbrelere dayanmadan en y\u00fcksek verimi \u00fcretece\u011fi yer anlam\u0131na geliyor. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Senaryoya g\u00f6re, bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndan kahve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden en \u00e7ok etkilenen mahsul olacak. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde her \u00fc\u00e7 iklim senaryosunda da kahve yeti\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in uygun b\u00f6lge say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 azalacak. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6ncelikle Brezilya, Vietnam, Endonezya ve Kolombiya gibi kahve \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerde y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131n sonucu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kaju f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7lar olduk\u00e7a \u00e7e\u015fitli. Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019da emisyonlar azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bile y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla kaju yeti\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in uygun olan arazi say\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 55&#8217;lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in bir \u015feyler yap\u0131lmazsa di\u011fer \u00fclkeler sadece tek haneli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6recek. Bununla birlikte, ABD, Arjantin ve Avustralya gibi y\u00fcksek ve al\u00e7ak enlemlerde k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n daha s\u0131cak ge\u00e7mesiyle beraber kaju f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeti\u015ftirmeye uygun arazinin d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda y\u00fczde 17 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ya\u011fmur ormanlar\u0131nda yeti\u015fen avokado i\u00e7in de benzer sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeti\u015febilecekleri yerlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklikler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Is\u0131nan b\u00f6lgelerin 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar daha fazla ya\u011fmur \u00fcretece\u011fi ve avokado yeti\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in en elveri\u015fli b\u00f6lgelerin d\u00fcnya genelinde y\u00fczde 14 ila 41 oran\u0131nda azalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Orta derecede uygun olan b\u00f6lgelerin y\u00fczde 12 ila 20 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eu anda en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretici olan Meksika&#8217;da, uygun avokado yeti\u015ftirme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar sal\u0131nan emisyonlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 66&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 87&#8217;ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>G\u0131dalar\u0131 gelece\u011fe uyarlama<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, 2050&#8217;de k\u00fcresel g\u0131da arz\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in ne anlama gelebilir? &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cornell Ak\u0131ll\u0131 \u0130klim \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcmleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc&#8217;n\u00fcn eski y\u00f6neticisi Hoffman, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin gelecekteki g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine dair daha fazla ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle beraber mahsullere sald\u0131ran zararl\u0131lar\u0131n miktar\u0131n\u0131n ve t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn artabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Varsay\u0131mlar bu mahsullerin azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Baz\u0131 yeti\u015ftirme b\u00f6lgeleri geni\u015fler ve di\u011ferleri k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken, belirli g\u0131dalar\u0131n ak\u0131betini tahmin etmek zor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hoffman, \u201cBelirli bir mahsul\u00fcn azalmas\u0131n\u0131n yerel d\u00fczeyde y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir etkiye sahip olabilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k,\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin \u00fcstesinden gelmek ve topra\u011f\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in \u00f6rt\u00fc bitkileri kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve kahve gibi y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 tolere edebilen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcrlerinin yeti\u015ftirilmesine kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli uyum \u00f6nerileri sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>California \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;ndeki bitki yeti\u015ftirme merkezi m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Charles Brummer ise \u201cBu \u00fcretimin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 var: M\u00fckemmelle\u015fmesi y\u0131llar alabilir ve bitki yeti\u015ftiricileri iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin h\u0131z\u0131na ayak uyduramayabilir. Is\u0131 dalgalar\u0131 daha \u015fiddetli ve daha s\u0131k hale gelirse, \u0131s\u0131ya en dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bitkiler bile ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yeti\u015fmeyebilir,\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tar\u0131m\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini y\u0131llar \u00f6nceden tahmin etmek, \u00e7ift\u00e7ilerin ne bekleyeceklerini bilmelerine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Politikac\u0131lar \u00e7ift\u00e7ileri erozyonu \u00f6nlemek veya gerekti\u011finde yeni mahsuller ekmek \u00fczere, \u00f6rt\u00fc bitkileri ve di\u011fer yeti\u015ftirme y\u00f6ntemlerini kullanmaya te\u015fvik edebilirler.&nbsp;<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c7eviri: <\/strong>G\u00f6kada Y\u0131lmaz<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kaynak:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/environment\/article\/what-climate-change-means-for-future-of-coffee-cashew-avocado\"> \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin kahve, kaju ve avokado \u00fcretimine etkisi<\/a>, Sarah Gibbens, National Geographic&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Foto\u011fraf:<\/strong> Canva<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plos One dergisinde yay\u0131nlanan yeni bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kahve, kaju f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve avokado i\u00e7in yeti\u015ftirme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi modellendi. S\u0131cak iklimlerde kahve yeti\u015ftirmenin zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin de kaju ve avokado yeti\u015ftirme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 saptand\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":284992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[800],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284991"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=284991"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285035,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284991\/revisions\/285035"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/284992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=284991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=284991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bugday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=284991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}